wait hold up the reason reds in the original poll are murderers is that nobody was forcing them to respond to the poll at all "no upside from choosing blue" bruh what upside did you get from choosing red??
The blue/red pill poll as an iterated scene you choose to enter
11 tweets · August 2023 · 67 likes · 3 retweets · read on Twitter
from this angle, which I am NOT saying is the only way to view this, but I think is legit a good intuition pump for part of why this was a scissor/blender statement the reds can be seen as playing the role of "someone who steps into a healthy scene, in order to undermine it"
the poll has a secret third option which is "do nothing"
nobody said you had to participate if we see this as an iterated scene that you enter by choosing a pill color and we note that you don't know whether the scene is alive because all-red or majority-blue then by entering the scene with red, YOU are choosing to attack it!
and I think that this "iterated scene" phenom is much more like what's actually going on one of many things thought-experiments are really bad at is modeling historical context. they all kind of exist in a weird void with no wholeness or integrity
if you model this as an ongoing evolving system, what becomes immediately apparent is that there's no way to make any kind of gradual transition from a community that is thriving based on majority-blue to one that is thriving based on all-red and you're already in your system!
true! huhhhhhhh this explains a lot of political tensions between independent and interdependent prior-based ideologies Sowell's A Conflict Of Visions comes to mind
this shows why changes in framing have such huge effects, because the framing is the only context you have on what type of scene you're stepping into! "blue" (aka team "everyone lives") is correct in the original poll—not just in my opinion but EMPIRICALLY since it got 65%
meanwhile, in this poll—structurally isomorphic but with a different framing and colors changed to reduce team-bias... "green" (aka team "you live no matter what") is the obvious attractor (as I predicted when I made it (thought it'd be more but idk, lizardman's constant etc))
My guess is 3 main factors affect framing: 1. order 2. simplicity 3. collective outcome vs individual outcome 2 & 3 aren't perfectly disentanglable though! 🔵 "everybody lives" is the simplest option for the collective 🟢 "you live no matter what" is simplest for individual
another take along similar lines, coming from a different angle (the preceding thought was "if the game is only against copies of yourself it's trivial and impossible to lose")