Why the divorce rate says little about your marriage

"The divorce rate is—" The divorce rate is irrelevant. Marriages aren't a mass-produced product that just randomly breaks down half the time. They're all homemade.

Apr 30, 2024

Also before the divorce rate was high the misery rate was higher. But some people love their marriages! So... can you know which kind you're gonna get, before you commit? Seems to me: not 100% but substantially! I'm developing a framework for it here:

it's not just unique variables and a reference class! marriages aren't picked out of any bag at all, they're created you do "pick" a partner but you also co-create them as-a-partner, via the courtship process you go through to get to marriage

Andy Zou @YoAndyZou · May 1, 2024

@nickcammarata @Malcolm_Ocean This is about the "ecological fallacy," presumably alluding to how people often misapply population statistics to their individual decision-making. We don't pick marriages/hearts out of a random bag, our unique variables are more significant than the population average. So,

a way in which the divorce rates ARE relevant: they clearly indicate that getting married doesn't automatically mean you'll have a partner for life. it tells you that having a successful marriage isn't easy or straightforward or the default path. x.com/NoMindToThink/…